Where do I see publishing going?

There are as many opinions on the future of publishing as there are different types of publishing, and only time will tell who's right or wrong. I also believe that where each sector of publishing will go will be determined primarily by its readers and its purpose.

For fiction book publishing, where the primary purpose is a good read, I believe that the Kindle and other e-readers will not take over the market. Instead, POD will become cheap enough that there will be POD kiosks in large retailers. One will either walk over to a POD "atm" and order and pay for a book that will be printed while you wait, or one can order and pay online and then walk over to the kiosk later and pick up the book. Wiley has actually taken the first step towards this by announcing that they plan to have "travel kiosks" in Border stores.

For non-fiction book publishing, it will depend on whether the book is narrative in nature or for reference purposes. If the former, then I believe the kiosk approach will work for them as well; if the latter, then the search functions offered by e-readers would be invaluable and will therefore outweigh the benefits of the tried-and-true paper format.

For journals, magazines, and newspapers I believe that it's only a matter of time before e-paper technology takes over. For those of you who aren't familiar with e-paper, see Wikepedia's definition below:

Electronic paper, also called e-paper, is a display technology designed to mimic the appearance of ordinary ink on paper. Unlike a conventional flat panel display, which uses a backlight to illuminate its pixels, electronic paper reflects light like ordinary paper and is capable of holding text and images indefinitely without drawing electricity, while allowing the image to be changed later.

There are several different technologies to build e-paper, some of which can use plastic substrate and electronics, so that the display is flexible. It is considered more comfortable to read than conventional displays. This is due to the stable image which does not need to be constantly refreshed, the large viewing angle, and the fact that it uses reflected ambient light. It has a similar contrast ratio to that of a newspaper and is lightweight and durable, however it still lacks good color reproduction.

Applications include e-book readers capable of displaying digital versions of books and e-paper magazines, electronic pricing labels in retail shops ^[1], time tables at bus stations ^[2], and electronic billboards ^[3].

Electronic paper should not be confused with digital paper, which is a pad to create handwritten digital documents with a digital pen.

Since journals, magazines, and newspapers all have a predefined page length, which tends not to vary too much between issues, e-paper would allow a reader to buy the e-paper version once, and then have the latest issue uploaded at a lower subscription rate. Eventually e-paper will be able to handle high-resolution photos as well as the black-and-white ones, so that won't be a deterrent for the high-end magazines and journals.

With the ever-increasing cost of PPB (paper, printing, and binding), the new technology is definitely a way for both the publisher and the consumer to save money. But there will always be readers, like myself, who prefer the feel of a book in the hand rather than another screen to stare at. And if along with the cheaper POD kiosks there are bins to return the book--perhaps even with a rebate like Staples is now offering for returned cartridges--then the paper can be recycled and reused.

And as a speaker said at the Book Business Conference I went to recently, "the future is here today."

Until next time.