Does Digital Cannibalize Print? Not Yet.

(Andrew Savikas, August 7, 2009)

One of the big risk factors publishers think about when it comes to digital books is that they will cannibalize print sales. Factor in the lower prices we're seeing for ebooks, and it's a quite reasonable concern.

Looking at data on sales from our website, at first glance that would appear to be exactly what's happening:

Over the past 18 months, we've gone from print outselling digital by more than 2:1 to just the opposite.

But that's not the full story. If there really was cannibalization happening, you'd expect to see our print sales underperforming the overall computer book market, but that's not what's happening. Here's a comparison of how our sales (as measured by Bookscan) stack up against the broader computer book market. The data here is normalized (the first period in the graph is set to 100, and subsequent results are calculate relative to that period):

Roger Magoulas, who heads up our Research Team (which is doing some way cool stuff with App Store data) put it this way in a recent backchannel email covering this as part of a larger analysis:

By looking at the data and these charts we infer that while O'Reilly physical book sales are down compared to last year, this seems more the result of the drop in demand for computer books since the financial meltdown than the impact of ebook sales. Since O'Reilly is a relatively prolific publisher of econtent we would expect that ebooks would affect O'Reilly's physical book sales more than other publishers and we don't see that evidence in these results. Even if ebooks are taking a bite out of O'Reilly physical book sales, we see no negative effect on O'Reilly's slightly increasing share in the physical book market nor on how O'Reilly's sales correlate with the overall market for physical computer books.

So, for now, if what we infer is correct, you can put away your exorcism crosses, ebooks seem more a legitimate expanded market opportunity than a projectile vomiting Linda Blair wannabe.

Bowker Reports U.S. Book Production Declines 3% in 2008, but "On Demand" Publishing More Than Doubles

NEW PROVIDENCE, NJ -- (Marketwire) -- 05/19/09

Bowker, the global leader in bibliographic information management solutions, today released statistics on U.S. book publishing for 2008, compiled from its Books In Print® database. Based on preliminary figures from U.S. publishers, Bowker is projecting that U.S. title output in 2008 decreased by 3.2%, with 275,232 new titles and editions, down from the 284,370 that were published in 2007.

Despite this decline in traditional book publishing, there was another extraordinary year of growth in the reported number of "On Demand" and short-run books produced in 2008. Bowker projects that 285,394 On Demand books were produced last year, a staggering 132% increase over last year's final total of 123,276 titles. This is the second consecutive year of triple-digit growth in the On Demand segment, which in 2008 was 462% above levels seen as recently as 2006.

"Our statistics for 2008 benchmark an historic development in the U.S. book publishing industry as we crossed a point last year in which On Demand and short-run books exceeded the number of traditional books entering the marketplace," said Kelly Gallagher, vice president of publisher services for New Providence, N.J.-based Bowker. "It remains to be seen how this trend will unfold in the coming years before we know if we just experienced a watershed year in the book publishing industry, fueled by the changing dynamics of the marketplace and the proliferation of sophisticated publishing technologies, or an anomaly that caused the major industry trade publishers to retrench."

(Editor's Note: Members of the news media who are interested in obtaining statistics from Bowker for specific industry categories are invited to email Daryn Teague, Bowker's public relations consultant, at dteague@teaguecommunications.com.)

"The statistics from last year are not just an indicator that the industry had a decline in new titles coming to the market, but they're also a reflection of how publishers are getting smarter and more strategic about the specific kinds of books they're choosing to publish," explained Gallagher. "If you look beyond the numbers, you begin to see that 2008 was a pivotal year that benchmarks the changing face of publishing."

Among the major publishing categories, the big winners last year were Education and Business, two categories that might suggest publishers were seeking to give consumers more resources for success amidst a very tough job environment. There were 9,510 new education titles introduced in the U.S. in 2008, up 33% from the prior year, and 8,838 new business titles, an increase of 14% over 2007 levels.

By contrast, the big category losers in 2008 were Travel and Fiction, two categories in which publishers clearly saw less demand during a deep recession in the U.S. There were 4,817 new travel books introduced last year, down 15% from the year before, and 47,541 new fiction titles, a drop of 11% from 2007. Moreover, the Religion category dropped again last year, with 14% fewer titles introduced in the U.S., and that once reliable engine of growth for publishers is now well off its peak year of 2004.

According to Gallagher, the Bowker data reveals that the top five categories for U.S. book production in 2008 were:

    1. Fiction (47,541 new titles)
   2. Juveniles (29,438)
   3. Sociology/Economics (24,423)
   4. Religion (16,847)
   5. Science (13,555)

Methodology

The book production figures in this news release are based on year-to-date data from U.S. publishers and include traditional print as well as on demand titles. Audiobooks and E-books are excluded. If changes in industry estimates occur, they will be reflected in a later published report. Books In Print data represents input from more than 75,000 publishers in the U.S. The data is sent to Bowker in electronic files, and via BowkerLink(TM), Bowker's password protected Web-based tool, which enables publishers to update and add their own data.

Books In Print is the only bibliographic database with more than 8 million U.S. book, audiobook and video titles. It is widely regarded throughout the publishing industry as the most authoritative and comprehensive source of bibliographic data available worldwide, and has been a trusted source of data in North America for more than 50 years.

Defining Publishing Today

I will be explaining my job--and publishing--to my son's second-grade class Monday afternoon. Once a year, his school invites parents to come in and speak to the class about their jobs, and this is the second year in a row that I have volunteered to do so.

Last year, I brought Aliki's How a Book is Made and a magnifying glass for show and tell: the former to show some colorful visuals of printing presses and how colors combine; the latter to let them see for themselves that everything printed is made up of dots. The class enjoyed the show-and-tell and had several questions about publishing. Although I mentioned online trends, it was an addendum at the end of my "presentation."

Since publishing has changed that much in a year, I was going to focus on that change and how its evolved from a print-only industry to one where print is only one of the many platforms offered. But my son told me he had been looking forward to my show-and-tell, and I don't want to disappoint him, so I now need to figure out how to present all of that in fifteen minutes or less.

Even though I've been aware of the changes going on in the industry, and reading about them, it honestly still surprised me that last year when I spoke to my son's class, e-books was not a major part of my discussion--nor did I feel it necessary to make it so. This year, I would feel remiss not to mention it, and may even pull out my BlackBerry with its Fictionwise e-reader application as part of the show-and-tell.

How would you define and explain publishing to a child...or even an adult who was not familiar with the process? How do you define it to authors?